Cold fronts and migrating ducks, peanut butter and jelly, peas and carrots — some things just go together — until they don’t.
The deep South, including Arkansas, has experienced brutal cold snaps in the middle of January the last two seasons that provided hunters with schoolboy-like excitement. Social media posts and coffee shop banter were littered with the anticipation of a wave of fresh ducks coming from the north.
“Here come the ducks!” was the rallying cry of hunters who, for the most part, had a tough season for various reasons, namely, warmer temperatures up until that point. Arid conditions down south also didn’t help. The weather was mild in Arkansas, up into Canada and everywhere in between. The migration had stalled after early cold fronts pushed a few. Most of the ducks in the southern end of the flyway through early January were those dependable calendar migrators, also known as “Halloween Mallards.”
So naturally, as we’ve been told for decades, snow cover and well below freezing temperatures to the north will hurdle waves of ducks our way. Hunters rearranged schedules, took days off work and ensured all their gear was in tip-top shape because a cruddy duck season was about to be salvaged.
Then the cold fronts came and went, and the ducks didn’t show. Two years in a row, the air went out of the balloon, leaving hunters to wonder what happened. Sure, the cold temps here made the ducks that had been pretty dang lazy most of the season get up and move, forage for food as they burned more calories trying to stay warm. Most of the state being frozen helped as ducks got desperate and risked their lives, seeking any open water they could find. But a significant influx of ducks flat didn’t happen.
So now hunters want to know why. The cold fronts in the proverbial “good ole days” funneled wads of ducks to the state, and the hunting took off like a rocket ship.
Or did it?
All of our memories get a little fuzzy as the years go by, mine included. Only those clubs that keep ridiculously detailed records could go back and see when cold fronts hit and how the subsequent hunting went.
Doug Osborne, professor of Wildlife Management at the University of Arkansas-Monticello and respected mallard expert, believes weather has a lesser impact on pushing ducks south than is commonly thought. Osborne says, “Weather isn’t as influential as it used to be. Growing up in the 1980s Midwest, winter meant long-lasting snow and ice. Now, cold snaps are brief, which benefits migratory waterfowl. Modern mallards stay put if food and safety are present, since migrating during weather events carries risks like lack of open water, food or sanctuary.”
There are a few factors at play as to why these last two January cold fronts haven’t pushed ducks to the southern end of the Mississippi Flyway. Like most things related to ducks and duck hunting, the good, bad and the ugly are rarely one thing.
When, Not If
A principal point related to weather as a driver of duck migration isn’t whether a cold front happens, it’s when. As mentioned previously, weather does matter. Cold temperatures require ducks to get up and move around to find food. Warm weather does the opposite, as their caloric needs decrease, so they just sit with a lot of nocturnal movement when they feel safer. But that is key for ducks already here.
A cold blast before the winter solstice is key for a push of fresh ducks into areas like Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and even parts of Missouri. The winter solstice is when the Earth is tilted the farthest away from the sun, typically occurring on or around December 21 or 22. The day immediately following is when daylight becomes longer, and the ducks know it. This length of daylight transition triggers waterfowl, and their compasses change from south to north.
Cason Short, owner of Bill Byers Hunter Club near Brinkley, shares a long-running theory his family has subscribes to: “We grew up hearing that the next cold front would push ducks south, but present-day GPS data says otherwise. My grandfather believed peak migration happened around early November, the midpoint between the fall equinox and the winter solstice. While species composition shifted through winter, duck numbers rarely topped that point. Recent seasons with few ‘new’ ducks in January support his theory.”
Once the solstice happens, waterfowl are less likely to make big hops south as they do not want to get farther away from the breeding grounds. There may be some local or lateral movement happening, but the likelihood for big pushes of ducks in January is minimal. The first ducks back to the Prairie Pothole Region get the best habitat to breed, so why get farther away?
Bradley Cohen, associate professor of wildlife ecology at Tennessee Tech, explains, “Our GPS data suggests that mallards are done with large-scale migrations by the end of the new year. Most migratory relocations during January are small and within 30 miles of their previous location. Some of our recent work with Cornell Lab of Ornithology and Ducks Unlimited showed that when we had extreme winter weather in February of 2021 that locked up most of the water in the southeastern US, many waterfowl species did not push further south. The desire to return north for breeding at that time of year is too strong a pull. I don’t know if these patterns would be the same for ducks establishing wintering areas further north in northern Missouri and southern Iowa.”
The last two Januarys in Arkansas served as Exhibits A and B and left hunters asking, “Where are the ducks?” The conditions were right for movement, as big snow accumulations and prolonged below-freezing temperature days hit to the north. But the push didn’t happen.
In fact, a January push rarely happens according to the Arkansas Game & Fish Commission aerial survey data. Since the setting of the current transects (or flight lines) the AGFC planes traverse in 2009, the late winter mallard count has only exceeded the first week of January midwinter survey three times (January 2011, 2013 and 2021). Late winter surveys were not flown in 2014 and 2015. The “we should be hunting in February as the ducks are just getting here” is a farce, but that is another topic for another day.
During the January 2025 cold snap, a social media post of mallards rafted up in the Missouri River while chunks of ice floated by went viral. Some proclaimed all the missing ducks from the south were sitting along that stretch of river. There were a lot of ducks, but not nearly enough to make up the current population deficit. But the point is, with most of the Mississippi Flyway frozen, why didn’t these ducks move? Because of the timing of the cold front. If that front had come two to three weeks earlier, Missouri would have likely been void of ducks, and the southern duck hunters would be rejoicing and talking about the glory days being here again.
To their demise, ducks have decided to sit tight during these harsh January freezes instead of moving to find warmer temperatures and adequate food. They are so dead set on not extending their flights back to the breeding grounds that they hunker down and try to survive until the weather clears. This was evident in February 2021 when Arkansas was hit with an epic cold snap, and dead ducks were found all over the landscape. The conditions got too harsh, but they weren’t budging.
Osborne adds, “When duck numbers are high and food is quickly depleted in quality habitats, cold snaps trigger migration. More ducks mean more movement. Hunters benefit from targeting the fringe of the population, especially when numbers are strong, without harming the overall population. But when numbers are low, less food competition reduces the urgency to migrate.”
Other Factors
Flooded, unharvested corn and Ducks Unlimited projects to the north get their fair share of blame for ducks staying out of the Deep South. Regarding flooded corn, there is likely a shade of truth to that being a factor. Habitat and food availability for migrating ducks have improved on private ground and public land up and down the flyway. Ducks Unlimited leads numerous projects across the country, as highlighted on the project map on their website. After reviewing the map, hunters subscribing to the theory that DU is spending money on projects to benefit big donors in the north will be sadly disappointed.
December Magic
One of these days, Mother Nature will come through with a mid-December blast of winter weather. It’s been a minute, but we are long overdue for things to get right before Christmas and carry over into January. Provided the mallard population is in good standing, odds are the Deep South will see a push of birds we all desire.
Until then, temper your expectations of a big January push and hope you already have some ducks in your area when the cold hits. The ducks that are around will activate, and good hunting should follow. Just don’t mistake those for new, fresh ducks from the north, as their compass is pointed in the wrong direction for us by January.
