Amid massive cuts in federal spending, American researchers are projecting that Arkansas could lose millions in conservation funding. 

Jonathan Coppess, director of the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, said the state could lose up to $665 million in conservation funding, per an analysis of the Natural Resources Conservation Service, Inflation Reduction Act and farm bill data. 

“I used the IRA data to estimate how much funding might be left from the original appropriations, then used the historic allocations to project forward the remaining funds,” Coppess explained. 

Coppess’ research suggests that Arkansas could lose $142 million from the Conservation Stewardship Program; $266 million from the Environmental Quality Incentives Program; $161 million from the Regional Conservation Partnership Program; and $95 million from the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, according to reporting by Talk Business & Politics.

A budget plan released by the U.S. House of Representatives in February calls for $230 billion in Department of Agriculture funding cuts through 2031. Coppess said he thinks it’s likely conservation funding will take a hit. 

“I think there is a strong likelihood that at least a significant amount of it will be cut, either by reconciliation or lost trying to repurpose it in a future farm bill,” Coppess said, noting that the latter option is less likely. “A big challenge with this is the (Congressional Budget Office) scoring methods, which reduces the amount available to be rescinded and then requires funding the entire budget window in the baseline, meaning the rescinded funds have to stretch over multiple years.”

Coppess said once a budget is finalized, farmers and others impacted by funding cuts can use tools developed by his university to compare the cuts to the previous status quo.

“When I started updating the projects after the latest data was released in January, the administration’s funding freeze had not happened and that adds further uncertainty. Nor had the House produced its $230 billion reconciliation instruction,” Coppess said. “The projection is a placeholder to compare whatever changes come along.”

A data map developed by the university shows how different staple crops grown in multiple areas of the country could be impacted by conservation funding. 

Farmers across Arkansas called 2024 the most difficult year they’ve faced. Potential funding cuts in the Department of Agriculture could further strain their operations. 

“The last couple years have been the most difficult of my life. Despite record yields, my operation has endured steep losses due to a sharp increase in input costs and low commodity prices,” Marianna farmer Jason Reed told the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture in  February.