Like the estimates from early December, the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission’s annual Midwinter Aerial Survey showed a jump in total ducks and mallards from estimates of those categories a year ago in the state.
AGFC Wildlife Management Division employees flew transect-based surveys in Arkansas’s Delta and Arkansas River Valley as well as cruise surveys in southwestern Arkansas between Jan. 6-13. The waterfowl biologists estimated 452,017 mallards and 924,545 total ducks in the Delta. Duck counts in the Arkansas River Valley totaled 84,119 ducks, including 39,058 mallards. The duck population also picked up in southwest Arkansas from December’s cruise surveys, with staff estimating 22,160 ducks, 2,660 of those being mallards.
Arctic goose population estimates in the Delta totaled 615,756 lesser snow and Ross’s geese and 189,166 greater white-fronted geese (specklebellies). Interestingly, the speck estimate was about half of what it had been in the early December survey.
The Delta-wide mallard estimate for early January was 182,324 mallard above the 2024 midwinter survey estimate but still 309,595 below the 2010-2025 midwinter long-term average. The total duck estimate in the Delta was 260,554 below the 16-year long-term average, but 242,456 birds above last year’s Midwinter count. On average, mallards account for 63% of all ducks in the Delta during the midwinter survey, but for this survey mallards made up 49% of the total estimate.
“Although we saw an uptick in ducks from the last (midwinter survey) and the December survey, we are still down a ways from the long-term average,” Brett Leach, the AGFC’s waterfowl program coordinator.
The aerial surveyors were back in the air this week for the third and final survey of the waterfowl season. The AGFC’s Tristan Bulice, Jason Jackson, William Guy, Alex Zachary and Derek Furr have conducted the first two surveys.
“Habitat conditions improved just prior to the (midwinter survey) with several precipitation events, leading to overbank flooding throughout much of the state,” Leach noted. “Many rivers remained in flood stage by the end of the survey period; however, the amount of overbank flooding began declining throughout the survey.
“The majority of the survey occurred as the state was swept with freezing temperatures just prior to a snowstorm and wrapped up during the thaw.”
Leach noted that while driving around last Sunday he noticed “it definitely seemed like there was an uptick in ducks.” The temperature began dropping significantly overnight Saturday with a “Siberian Express” that drove Sunday temps below freezing and Monday and Tuesday temps into the teens. Anecdotally, high flights of ducks in central and east-central Arkansas were reported moving toward rivers on Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold blast.
Hot Zones From Survey
Leach also noted that in the midwinter survey, more than 100,000 mallards were estimated in two survey zones: the Black River-Upper White River area and the Cache River area. These survey zones accounted for 49% of the Delta mallard estimate and 41% of the total duck estimate. The highest total duck estimates also came from these survey zones.
Additionally, the Bayou Meto-Lower Arkansas River survey zone had a relatively high total duck estimate of 168,977, including 69,102 mallards. Hotspot maps indicate several key duck concentration areas primarily in the northern portion of the Delta, with scattered distribution throughout the central part of the state, as was the case in December — though the season’s first survey also showed a large “hotspot” concentration near the confluence of the Arkansas and White and Mississippi rivers.
Arkansas River Valley mallard estimates were 14,977 mallards above the midwinter long-term average, and total duck estimates were 37,972 ducks above the long-term average, but Leach threw caution toward those counts.
“Those were likely biased high with the frozen conditions and a few of the transects happened to hit large concentrations,” he said. Surveyors saw the majority of river valley mallards in the Point Remove-Plumerville survey zone, about 81%. Total duck estimates were also highest in that zone, which accounted for 73% of total ducks estimated in the river valley.
The southwest Arkansas mallard count was 63% below the midwinter long-term average, while total ducks were 6% above long-term average. Nearly 60% of the observed mallards were along the Red River from Interstate 30 to U.S. Highway 82.