The Arkansas Game and Fish Commission’s Wildlife Management Division completed its annual late-January aerial survey on Jan. 24, counting nearly 250,000 fewer mallards than the long-term average would suggest should be in the state.
The Delta mallard population estimate was 208,281 mallards above the 2024 late-January estimate, but 222,018 mallards below the 2010-2025 long-term average.
The late-January survey is the last of the season. The survey areas included the Mississippi Alluvial Valley (Delta), the Arkansas River Valley and southwest Arkansas.
Biologists conducting transect-based surveys in the Delta estimated 458,682 mallards and 793,742 total ducks, while duck population estimates in the Arkansas River Valley totaled 19,639 ducks, including 7,456 mallards. Staff performing cruise surveys in southwest Arkansas reported an estimated 19,555 ducks with 10,205 mallards. Arctic goose population estimates totaled 542,591 light (lesser snow and Ross’s) geese and 223,132 greater white-fronted geese in the Delta.
Total duck population estimates were 404,481 birds below the long-term average and 41,449 birds above the 2024 estimates.
On average, mallards account for about 55% of all ducks in the Delta during the late-January survey. During this survey period, mallards made up 58% of the total duck estimate.
Nearly 100,000 mallards were estimated in two survey zones: Bayou Meto-Lower Arkansas and Lower White. These survey zones accounted for 42% of the MAV-wide mallard estimate and 33% of the total duck estimate.
Additionally, the Cache and Lower White-Bayou Des Arc survey zones had relatively high total duck estimates of 114,956 and 134,603, respectively.
The Arkansas River Valley estimates for mallard and total duck estimates were well below the long-term average. During this survey, mallards made up 38% of the total duck estimate, a 23% decrease from the long-term average.
A majority of the mallards were estimated in the East Dardanelle and West Dardanelle survey zones (87%). Total duck estimates were also highest in these survey zones, which accounted for 87% of the total duck estimate.
Southwest Arkansas cruise survey mallard counts were 18% above the late January long-term average and total duck counts were 21% below the long-term average. A majority (76%) of the observed mallards were along the Red River from I-30 to the Sulphur River.
The widespread habitat availability observed during the midwinter survey in early January had declined due to the lack of rain and overbank flooding. This survey period was characterized by frozen conditions throughout many parts of the state, leading to some clumped distributions.
The average estimates this survey season were somewhat expected given habitat conditions on the breeding grounds, which likely led to a smaller fall flight.
Read the report: Arkansas Jan 2025 Aerial Waterfowl Survey
