The December 2024 count of 153,423 mallards in the Arkansas Delta region was almost double the total from the same time last year, but was still well below the 2009-2024 December long-term average in estimates made from the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission’s December Aerial Survey, conducted Dec. 9-13.
Estimates of 529,977 total ducks in early December were only about half as much as the long-term December average (1,050,899 total ducks on average over the 2009-24 period) yet also topped last December’s estimate of total ducks by more than 80,000 ducks. Arctic goose population estimates by the surveyors totaled 609,561 light geese (lesser snows and Ross’s) and 326,026 greater white-fronted geese in the Arkansas Delta.
“Similar to 2023, much of the Delta faced dry conditions this fall without any substantial recent rainfall, leaving the majority of the Delta abnormally to moderately dry,” according to Brett Leach, the AGFC’s waterfowl program coordinator. “After observers completed the survey period, portions of the state began to receive some rainfall.”
AGFC staff are expected to fly the annual Midwinter Waterfowl Survey the week of Jan. 6, Leach said. Last year’s Midwinter Waterfowl Survey showed a big jump in total ducks and mallards estimated compared to December before the numbers eased back down below the long-term estimates in the later January survey.
December duck population estimates in the Arkansas River Valley showed improvement over previous years’ counts, with 40,901 total ducks estimated, including 19,126 mallards. Cruise surveys in southwestern Arkansas reported an estimated 17,960 ducks, including 3,305 mallards.
In the report, Leach noted that on average, mallards account for about 49% of all ducks in the Delta during December surveys. However, during this survey period, mallards made up only 29% of the total duck estimate.
He also pointed out that waterfowl biologists estimated over 15,000 mallards in four survey zones: Bayou Bartholomew-Bayou Boeuf, Black-Upper White River, Cache River and the Lower St. Francis River. These survey zones accounted for 60% of the Delta-wide mallard estimate and 66% of the total duck estimate. The highest total duck estimates also came from these survey zones.
In addition, the Bayou Meto-Lower Arkansas survey zone had a relatively high total duck estimate of 51,021, though that area seemed to experience dry conditions. Most notably, the Cache River zone had 173,571 total ducks which made up 33 percent of the total duck estimate. Hotspot maps indicate several key duck concentration areas primarily in the southern and northeast portion of the Delta, with scattered distribution throughout the central part of the state.
Arkansas River Valley mallard estimates were 8,643 mallards above the December long-term average, and total duck estimates were roughly 16,000 ducks above the long-term average. During the December survey, mallards made up 47% of the total duck estimate, a 2% increase from the long-term average. A majority of the mallards was noted in the Holla Bend National Wildlife Refuge and Frog Bayou WMA survey zones, 57% of the estimated count. Total duck estimates were also highest in these two survey zones, which accounted for 61% of the total ducks estimated. This survey of the River Valley was the highest December mallard estimate since 2011 and highest total duck estimate since 2014.
Leach wrote in his report, “Higher estimates likely resulted, in part, from highly clumped distribution in areas like Holla Bend NWR due to limited habitat availability; survey estimates tend to be biased higher in this region under such conditions.”
Southwest Arkansas cruise survey mallard counts were 72% below the December long-term average and total duck counts were 50% below the long-term average. Nearly 80% of the observed mallards were along the Red River from Interstate 30 to the Sulphur River.
Editor’s note: This story’s headline previously incorrectly stated that the yearend duck count doubled; that was mistaken. Actually, the yearend mallard count in the Delta region was nearly double what it was in 2023.
